Planning Your Future with Origin: A Guide to Our Forecasting Tool

(We're currently testing Forecasting with a small group of users to gather feedback and make it even better. Stay tuned, wider access is coming soon!)

Welcome to Your Financial Time Machine

Financial planning has long been associated with high costs, complicated jargon, and limited access, especially for those who don’t already have significant wealth. At Origin, we believe that should change. We’ve built a financial forecasting tool to empower everyday individuals with the same powerful insights traditionally reserved for high-net-worth clients.

Our tool is designed to help you simulate how different financial decisions, both big and small, could possibly shape your future. Whether you're thinking about retirement, buying a home, or planning to expand your family, our tool allows you to map it all out in one place. In short, it functions like a financial time machine, helping you explore the road ahead with clarity and confidence.

Why We Built This Tool

Traditional financial advice often comes with a hefty price tag and high barriers to entry. Many financial advisors require clients to have at least $1 million in investable assets. Even then, fees can range from thousands of dollars per year to a percentage of your total assets under management.

At Origin, we set out to remove these barriers. We believe everyone deserves access to tools that enable thoughtful, long-term planning regardless of their income or wealth level. Our forecasting tool brings what we believe to be the core capabilities of professional financial planning software into an intuitive, user-friendly platform that’s accessible to everyone.

What the Forecasting Tool Does

Our tool helps users model both short-term and long-term financial scenarios, and it allows you to answer key questions such as:

• What if I retire earlier than planned?

• What if I receive a raise?

• What if I buy a home in five years?

• What if I help pay for my child’s college education?

By simulating different life events, the tool gives you a clearer understanding of how these decisions may affect your future net worth, cash flow, and retirement readiness. It’s designed for everyone, from people early in their careers to those preparing for life after work*.

Key Features

1. Net Worth Tracking

The tool shows you how your net worth evolves over time, which factors in changes in income, expenses, investments, debt, and asset growth. This is calculated using a straight line method of appreciation based on an assumed average rate of return. You have the ability to choose that average rate of return based on how your investments are allocated.

2. Cash Flow Analysis

You can visualize your projected annual income and expenses, allowing you to identify potential shortfalls, surpluses, or spending risks.

3. Monte Carlo Simulation

To model market variability, we use a Monte Carlo simulation—running thousands of different scenarios to assess the likelihood your plan will succeed. A plan is considered successful if it ends with a positive net worth in a majority of simulations**.

Our Planning Assumptions

We provide default assumptions that align with financial planning industry standards. 

• 3% annual inflation: applied to income, expenses, tax brackets, and contribution limits.

• Investment growth: users select a growth rate based on their risk tolerance (conservative, moderate, aggressive).

• Real estate and higher education expenses: assumed to grow at 5% per year.

Taxation Assumptions

Income taxation plays a significant role in long-term financial planning, which is why we take a comprehensive and realistic approach in our forecasts.

We account for federal and state income taxes, Social Security, Medicare (FICA), federal and state capital gains taxes where applicable, as well as Net Investment Income Tax, using your selected filing status (Single, Married Filing Jointly, Married Filing Separately, or Head of Household). Your filing status is used consistently across calculations that include standard deductions, tax brackets, Social Security benefit taxation, and more.

Capital Gains Treatment

For simplicity and consistency, we assume all capital gains are long-term. This approach reflects the nature of most long-term investing and avoids the need for detailed tracking of each investment’s cost basis, which is often unavailable or incomplete.

When modeling withdrawals from taxable brokerage accounts, we estimate that 65% of the withdrawal amount represents capital gains, with the remaining 35% treated as a return of principal. This assumption strikes a thoughtful balance: while studies show that the proportion of unrealized gains in taxable accounts can grow to 80–90% over several decades, a 65% estimate is a more conservative middle ground. It allows us to fairly estimate taxes on long-term withdrawals while avoiding overestimation for shorter-term planning.

We also include Net Investment Income Tax (NIIT) when applicable, which can affect higher-income households with significant investment income.

Inflation Adjustments and Annual Updates

All federal tax brackets, income thresholds, and contribution limits are assumed to grow with inflation each year. However, we also update our forecasts annually to reflect the most current tax laws, including any changes to tax rates, deductions, or contribution limits, at both the federal and state level.

While we do adjust most thresholds for inflation, there are some taxes that historically have not changed with inflation. FICA taxes, as well as the Net Investment Income Tax, have remained unchanged for over a decade. Therefore, we made the decision to maintain precedent and not adjust these taxes for inflation annually. If legislation is passed that updates these rates, we will adjust our forecasts accordingly.

By applying this level of detail, our tool ensures your forecast reflects the real-world impact of taxes—making your long-term planning more accurate, personalized, and financially sound.

Modeling Real-Life Events

We’ve designed the tool to reflect how we believe Certified Financial Planner® professionals s think through major financial milestones. Here’s how we handle different events:

Retirement Planning

Spending in Retirement: Your Desired Retirement Lifestyle

Planning for retirement starts with a simple but important question: how much will you need to spend to maintain your lifestyle? For users who don’t specify a retirement spending target, we default to 80% of current expenses, which is a standard assumption used across the financial planning industry. This amount strikes a balance between reduced work-related costs and increased discretionary or healthcare spending in retirement.

To determine how much someone would need to support this lifestyle, we use a formula called the present value of a growing annuity. This allows us to factor in the effects of inflation over the course of retirement, giving you a realistic estimate of the total amount needed on day one of retirement to sustain that level of spending throughout your remaining years.

Saving for Retirement

When it comes to saving, we prioritize contributions in the following order:

1. Traditional Retirement Accounts

2. Roth Accounts

3. Taxable Brokerage Accounts

This ordering reflects a balance between tax-deferred growth, tax diversification, and flexibility. Traditional accounts provide immediate tax deductions, which benefit many users while they are in their peak earning years. Roth accounts add tax-free growth and future withdrawal flexibility. Taxable brokerage accounts, while less tax-advantaged, provide liquidity and are still important for long-term savings goals.

In (near) future iterations of our tool, you will be able to choose your preferred priority of accounts for retirement savings.

Withdrawal Strategies in Retirement

A key decision in retirement planning is figuring out the most tax-efficient way to withdraw from your accounts. Our default strategy follows a common best-practice sequence:

1. Taxable accounts: to reduce capital gains taxes.

2. Traditional retirement accounts: to manage ordinary income taxes.

3. Roth accounts: for tax-free growth and withdrawals.

By using taxable assets first, we allow tax-advantaged accounts more time to grow. Delaying withdrawals from traditional accounts also creates opportunities for Roth conversions in low-income years. Roth accounts, which grow tax-free and are not subject to RMDs, are preserved as long as possible to maximize long-term value and flexibility.

Similar to saving for retirement, in future iterations of our tool you will be able to choose your preferred priority for retirement withdrawals.

Social Security in Retirement

Social Security plays a significant role in retirement income planning. Our tool encourages users to delay benefits until age 70 whenever possible, as this maximizes the monthly benefit amount, up to 124% of the full retirement age benefit. For users who begin benefits earlier—such as at age 62 or anytime before age 67—we automatically calculate the reduced benefit amounts based on current Social Security formulas.

We factor in the nuances of early and delayed claiming strategies which allows users to visualize how different starting ages affect both lifetime income and long-term financial sustainability.

We understand that predicting Social Security 20 - 40 years from now is difficult. That is why we used published research from the Center of Retirement Research at Boston College and the Social Security Administration to help guide us in determining what those values could be.

Based on this research, we decided on the following income replacement rates:

• $0 - $30,000: 40% replacement rate for pre-retirement income

• $30,000 - $80,000: 30% replacement rate for pre-retirement income

• $80,000 - $176,100: 20% replacement rate for pre-retirement income

We then adjust these numbers for inflation to provide an informed-estimate of what your Social Security benefit could be in the future. 

In the event a spouse dies before the other, we assume the surviving spouse will begin collecting reduced Social Security survivor benefits at age 60 (typically 71.5% of the deceased spouse’s full retirement benefit). Then, at the survivor’s Full Retirement Age (FRA) or at age 70, they will switch to the higher of either the survivor benefit or their own retirement benefit. This strategy aligns with financial planning best practices, as it provides early income while preserving the option to maximize long-term benefits.

Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)

RMDs are an important factor in retirement planning. Our tool automatically incorporates RMD rules based on the current IRS guidelines. This includes the starting age and annual distribution factors. As the IRS updates these rules—such as changing the starting age or life expectancy tables—we update our calculations to ensure your forecast reflects the most accurate requirements.

By incorporating RMDs, we help users avoid unexpected tax bills and better manage their income in later retirement years.

Legacy Planning

For users who want to leave a financial legacy to heirs, we offer built-in flexibility to model that objective. You can specify a legacy target—say, $1 million—and we’ll account for that in your retirement plan. Even if you don’t reach that goal in every scenario, your plan can still be considered successful under our Monte Carlo framework as long as you end retirement with a positive net worth.

In addition to the success rate of your overall retirement plan, we also show the probability of meeting your legacy goal. For example, you might have an 85% chance of leaving behind $1 million, even if your overall simulation success rate is 95%. This dual-metric approach provides greater transparency and supports meaningful conversations about trade-offs.

Home Purchase

Buying a home is one of the most significant financial milestones. For many, it’s the first large-scale investment they make. Our tool is designed to help users not only plan for the purchase but understand its long-term financial impact. Users can input the purchase price, expected down payment, loan term, and interest rate. For those unsure about home values, we pull in regional median home prices to help guide assumptions.

We automatically project home appreciation over time so you can see how this asset may contribute to your future net worth. We also calculate a full mortgage amortization schedule, showing you exactly how much equity you build and how your monthly payments evolve over time.

Homeownership is a major financial milestone—with our tool, you can:

• Input your preferred purchase price and loan terms.

• Use regional data to guide your assumptions.

• Account for appreciation over time (default is 5% annual growth)

• Automatically generate an amortization schedule.

Home Sale

Whether you're downsizing, upsizing, or relocating, selling a home can be just as impactful as buying one. Our tool allows users to link their home to Zillow estimates or manually input a current value. From there, we apply historical appreciation rates to forecast a future sale price.

We also calculate the common costs associated with selling—such as a 6% realtor commission—and estimate capital gains tax where applicable. For primary residences, we automatically apply the IRS Section 121 exclusion, which allows homeowners to exclude up to $250,000 (single) or $500,000 (married filing jointly) of gains from taxes if they meet the two-out-of-five-years residency rule.

The timing of your sale, your home’s appreciation, and your tax status all play into your projected outcome, which we incorporate to reflect a more accurate picture of your net proceeds and future cash flow. If you plan to sell your home in the future, the tool will:

• Sync with your Zillow estimate (optional).

• Project home value based on appreciation.

• Account for typical selling costs—such as a 6% realtor commission and closing costs.

• Calculate capital gains and apply the IRS Section 121 exclusion (if eligible)

College Planning

The rising cost of higher education makes saving for college one of the most critical long-term planning goals for parents. In our tool, users can select from national average tuition costs—or input the cost of a specific institution. We differentiate between in-state public schools, out-of-state public, and private universities, using updated data for each category.

We default to a 5% annual tuition inflation rate, which is in line with historical averages. Users can model saving through a 529 College Savings Plan—an investment vehicle that allows for tax-deferred growth and tax-free withdrawals when used for qualified education expenses.

We also help users plan for varying levels of coverage. Whether you plan to fund 100%, 50%, or another amount of your child’s education, the tool lets you model your share of the total costs, so you can align savings strategies accordingly.

You can enter custom tuition values and choose the funding method. By default, we assume the use of a 529 College Savings Plan, which provides tax-advantaged growth and withdrawals when used for qualified expenses.

Having Children

Expanding your family is one of life’s most meaningful milestones—and one of the most financially significant. Our tool helps you plan for the costs of raising a child from infancy to adulthood. By default, we use an annual cost of $22,000 per child, based on national data. However, users can adjust this estimate based on their expected lifestyle, geographic location, or personal preferences.

Users can also choose how long they expect to financially support their child—through age 18, 22, or even longer. You can define how long these expenses last based on your parenting goals.

In addition to regular child-rearing expenses, you can layer on other financial goals like college savings or housing support to reflect your full parenting plan. All of this integrates directly into your forecast to help you understand the short- and long-term implications of growing your family.

Windfall Events

Unexpected financial gains can change the course of your financial life—and we’ve made it simple to model them. Windfall events include inheritances, legal settlements, insurance payouts, business sales, and even bonuses or gifts. These are often large, one-time inflows of capital, and we treat them as tax-free by default—consistent with how many of these events are handled under current U.S. tax law.

While not all windfalls are non-taxable (lottery winnings or punitive damages, for instance), most of the scenarios our users enter fall under the tax-exempt category. To simplify planning, we assume no taxes—but users can enter a reduced amount if they’d like to reflect an after-tax value.

Secondary Income

In today’s economy, it’s increasingly common to have multiple streams of income—whether through a side hustle, freelance consulting, or part-time work in retirement. Our tool allows users to add a second income stream to reflect any non-primary earnings.

You can specify when the income starts, how long it lasts, and how much it generates annually. Whether you're launching a business, picking up seasonal work, or consulting a few hours a week, secondary income can meaningfully impact your financial trajectory.

It can also serve as a cushion—allowing you to delay withdrawals from savings or to continue saving even during transitional phases like semi-retirement. Side income, consulting work, or part-time jobs can be added to your forecast—you can set the start date, duration, and amount to see how this income impacts your overall plan.

Custom Events

Life doesn’t always follow a standard template—which is why our tool gives you the flexibility to create custom events. You can enter any income or expense and assign it to a specific year or recurring period.

You can define the amount, whether it's one-time or ongoing, and whether it affects income or expenses. This level of customization allows you to tailor your forecast to reflect real-life ambitions and obligations—making the plan feel personal and accurate.

Whether you're dreaming of a vacation home, preparing for a major medical expense, or projecting an unusual cash flow event, custom events ensure your forecast accounts for your unique financial story. Need to add something unique—like a large bonus, international move, or dream vacation? You can create fully customizable income or expense events—and plug them into your plan.

Equity Compensation Forecasting

We’ve added robust support for forecasting equity compensation outcomes, allowing users to model the financial impact of equity grants and exit events with greater precision. Our tool supports a range of equity types, including Incentive Stock Options (ISOs), Non-Qualified Stock Options (NSOs), Restricted Stock Units (RSUs), and concentrated positions in public company shares.

Users can input equity grant details directly into their Origin equity portfolio and specify assumptions such as the number of shares exercised or vested, anticipated sale timing, and expected share price at exit. The platform then incorporates these events into your broader forecast, helping you understand how potential liquidity from equity can affect your long-term net worth, retirement readiness, or ability to accomplish other goals.

What’s Coming Soon

We are continually enhancing our tool based on user feedback and evolving financial trends. Upcoming features include:

• Strategic debt paydown modeling—such as snowball and avalanche methods.

• Real estate investment forecasting—for those exploring rental property scenarios.

Final Thoughts

At Origin, we believe financial planning should be transparent, empowering, and accessible. Our forecasting tool allows you to explore different scenarios, anticipate challenges, and build a roadmap toward your goals.

It’s a professional-grade planning engine wrapped in a friendly, easy-to-use interface. Whether you’re planning your retirement, buying a home, or just wondering "What if?", our tool helps you find answers.

Financial planning shouldn’t be reserved for the few. With Origin, it’s available to everyone. No gatekeepers, no guesswork, just insight and clarity.

Because when you can see the future more clearly, you can plan for it more confidently.

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